The Oscars

Well, it’s that time of the year and the writer’s strike fell short of derailing this year’s Oscar ceremony so, or so it seems, the show will go on as they say. As someone who follows the Oscars pretty closely every year—if all the while complaining about how terrible the awards really are—I figure I should give my two cents.

First, I went back over the best picture nominees in recent and not so recent years and had to go all the way back to the 1977 ceremony before I found a group of nominees better that this years crop. I rated each years nominees by assigning +1 points to really good or unique nominees (Pulp Fiction) +2 points to classics (Goodfellas) -1 to bad nominees (Crash) -2 to really bad nominees (Titanic) and no points either way to solid nominees, neither here nor there (Good Will Hunting). Granted there were a few films I haven’t seen amongst the many nominees of the last thirty years, but I figure if I haven’t seen it (or worst, haven’t heard of it) it must not be worth any points. I did not take into consideration the best picture winners as this year does not yet have a winner. Although, if Atonement wins I may have to revise this article because that would be on par with Titanic winning in 1998 and would taint this year completely.

To compare, this is how I rated this year’s nominees: There Will Be Blood +2, No Country For Old Men +2, Juno +1, Michael Clayton +1, Atonement -2 = 4. Most years between ’77 and ’08 received a total of 0 or 1. There were a few 3s (mostly early eighties, late 70s) and a few in the negative (mostly in the last 10 years). 1977 featured three of the greatest films of all time: All The President’s Men +2, Network +2, Taxi Driver +2, plus an underrated bio-pic about Woody Guthrie (Bound for Glory +1) and Rocky got a respectable 0.

Obviously we know a lot more about the films of the past than we do about the current nominees but I have a strong feeling that my +2s from this year will be remembered thirty years from now. In addition, I respect the nomination of Juno, which is the kind of film that rarely gets academy recognition. I’ve always felt if the Academy wasn’t ever going to honor comedies, which I consider just as an important film genre as any other, than they should give them their own category. I don’t know how Michael Clayton will survive time. I thank it’s a great film but probably won’t hold up over time in the same way The Verdict has, and they are very similar films. But it could and in thirty years perhaps it will warrant a +1 or even +2. Atonement is one of the worst critically successful films I have seen in a long time. If it wins best picture (like it did the globes – they usually have better taste) it will be the worst best picture winner since Titanic, worse than Crash, Chicago and even Shakespeare in Love (although I must admit I really liked this film at the time). Why it got nominated when such great films were available like I’m Not There (the best film in years), Into the Wild and The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, I can only attribute to the fact that the academy is really old and period dramas are like candy for old people.

Notable snubs: I’m Not There: I didn’t expect too many nominees for this little seen and somewhat inaccessible film, but at the very least it deserved screenplay and editing nominations. Into The Wild: Enchantment gets three best song nominations, THREE, and Eddie Vedder gets ZERO. Not to mention no adapted script or best director for Sean Penn. Emile Hirsch wasn’t bad either but I can’t complain about that. No Simpsons Movie for best animated…Yeah, it’s not as good as their early years but come on, it’s the Simpsons for God’s sake. 4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days: No best foreign language nod. Was this not eligible or something? The most well reviewed film of the year amongst so many greats. And, of course, Paul Dano, no supporting actor nod. He held his own with Paul Dano for God's sake.

Predictions: Who Will Win/Who Should Win:

Best Picture
Michael Clayton/Juno
Why? Because Michael Clayton is the industry favorite, because No Country and Blood are too gritty for the Academy, because Atonement is terrible, and because a film like Juno has never been honored before.

Best Director
Joel & Ethan for No Country/Julian Schnabel for Diving Bell & The Butterfly
Why? Because the Coens do something very slick and somewhat brave and they are very over do, because Blood hasn’t gotten the same attention as No Country, because Gilroy and Reitman are out of their league and because Diving Bell is the most unique and imaginative film in years.

Best Actor
Daniel Day Lewis/Daniel Day Lewis
Why? Because he’s Daniel Day Lewis and the rest don’t hold a candle.

Best Actress
Julie Christie/Marion Cotillard
Why? Because Christie has been around a long, long time (hasn’t won since ’66) and is actually quite good, because Page is too young, because no one saw The Savages, because Cate comes later and because Marion Cotillard truly kills the toughest part of the bunch.

Supporting Actor
Javier Bardem/Tom Wilkinson
Why? Because of that hairdo (and he’s really good), because the old guys will split the life-time achievement vote, because Phillip Seymour just won a couple years ago and because Wilkinson is over-do and is really very good.


Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett/Cate Blanchett
Because she’s Cate Blanchett and if you saw I’m Not There you couldn’t in your right mind vote for anybody else, because it’s been so long since it came out that Amy Ryan is Gone Baby Gone, because Ruby Dee is too old and Soirse Ronan is too young and neither is any good, because Tilda Swinton deserves an Oscar but not for this and because Cate Blanchett is the best actress in the world.

Original Screenplay
Diablo Cody for Juno/Diablo Cody for Juno
Why? Because this film won’t get any other recognition.

Adapted Screenplay
The Coens for No Country/Ronald Harwood for Diving Bell
Why? Because after all of the critical acclaim No Country will get honored more than any other film despite no best picture win, because nobody cares about Away From Her aside from Julie Christie’s performance, because Atonement is terrible, because the writing in There Will Be Blood is overshadowed by the performances and because the literary poetry of Diving Bell transfers to the screen like a lover’s whisper in your ear.


Best Cinematography
Seamus McGarvey for Atonement/Janusz Kaminski for Diving Bell
Why? Because of that ten-minute shot that proved how much money they spent, because Deakins will split the vote with himself, because There Will Be Blood has been completely overshadowed by No Country and because the Cinematography of Diving Bell engages (and emotionally manipulates) the viewer unlike any film I have ever seen.

Best Foreign Language Film
Die Falscher/Die Falscher
Why? Because I haven’t seen a single one of these films or heard much about them.

Best Documentary Feature
No End In Sight/No End In Sight
Why? Because it’s a great revelation about what caused the greatest cluster-fuck of our time.